Buckle Up! 😬 Cowboys in Chaos

Hey 👋 

Before we dig in, I have a quick favor to ask you.

Each week I spend a couple hours crafting this email entirely for free. It’d mean the world to me if you could share Opening Drive with just one person who you think would also enjoy it.

Here’s your unique referral code you can copy and paste: https://openingdrive.beehiiv.com/subscribe?ref=PLACEHOLDER

Or, you can just forward this email and tell them to click on that link and subscribe. 🙏 🙏 

Good morning. This is the Opening Drive, the weekly newsletter that brings you the best of the NFL so you’re always the smartest one at the water cooler.

CeeDee Lamb is laughing at Jerry Jones, the Browns unveiled plans for a domed stadium 🤮, Nick Foles is hanging them up, Brandon Aiyuk turned down a $32 million trade offer from the Patriots, Dak could wind up being the first $70 million QB, and we unpack whether or not regular season winning percentage a good predictor of championships.

Let’s dive in.

QUICK HITS

• Cowboys place WR CeeDee Lamb on reserve/did not report list (Heavy.com)

• Sam Darnold is close to solidifying his role as Vikings QB1 (SI.com)

• Patriots offered WR Brandon Aiyuk $32 million (SI.com)

• Chiefs, Harrison Butker agree to four-year contract extension making him the NFL’s highest paid kicker (PFT)

• QB Nick Foles, Super Bowl LII Most Valuable Player, announces retirement as an Eagle (NFL.com)

• Rumor claims Dak Prescott contract value could reach $70 million per year (SI.com)

• Cowboys owner Jerry Jones says he has no "urgency" to get CeeDee Lamb deal done (NFL.com)

• Former Jets/Panthers WR Robbie Chosen Anderson signs with 49ers (PFT)

• Giants, Lions fined $200K for multiple fights during joint practices in training camp (NFL.com)

• Lions QB Hendon Hooker suffered a concussion in his first NFL action on Thursday night, per head coach Dan Campbell (NFL.com)

• Bengals DE Cam Sample out for season with torn Achilles (ESPN)

• Falcons WR Rondale Moore will miss season with knee injury (ESPN)

• Titans LB Garret Wallow to miss season with torn pec (PFT)

• Broncos DL Eyioma Uwazurike reinstated by NFL after gambling suspension (AP)

• Vikings WR Jordan Addison faces two misdemeanors after recent DUI incident (CBS Sports)

• Dept. of Justice being asked to investigate Disney, Fox, Warner Bros joint venture (The Athletic)

• Disney, Warner Bros Discovery, and Fox Sports have invested $400 million each in their joint venture Venu, according to Fox Corp. COO John Nallen (FOS)

• Browns reveal renderings for proposed $2.4 billion domed stadium (PFT)

WHO’S UP? WHO’S DOWN?

Who’s up?
Pilates. From defensive linemen to running backs, NFL players are embracing Pilates to gain an edge. The low-impact exercise is helping stars like Dexter Lawrence, Jaelan Phillips, and Kenny Clark build core strength, increase flexibility, and aid injury recovery.

In a recent piece by The Athletic’s Charlotte Carroll, Giants defensive tackle Lawrence said, "That Pilates be getting me right," highlighting the mind-body workout's benefits.

Dolphins linebacker Phillips raves about Pilates' holistic effects: "It makes your body stronger but also makes your mind and soul and spirit stronger. I really leave Pilates with a glow."

Packers Pro Bowler Clark initially dismissed Pilates before becoming a devoted practitioner. "You don't really see a lot of men or bigger guys doing Pilates," he admits. Now Clark credits it for keeping him durable.

Specialized instructors like Nicky Lal in Los Angeles and Kristen Wolf in Chicago are training dozens of NFL clients. Their customized sessions cater to players' bodies and needs, whether recovery, mobility, prevention, or core activation.

From the 49ers' Christian McCaffrey to the Giants' Andrew Thomas, more and more players are rolling out the mats. As Turner summarizes, "I'm doing this to help aid me in football, but I'm also doing this to help aid me in life in general." Who knows, maybe the Pilates craze will lead to NFL teams hiring ballerinas as strength coaches.

Who’s down?
The Eagles. After a blistering 10-1 start, the Philadelphia Eagles' 2023 season unraveled in spectacular fashion. At the center of the collapse was a fractured relationship between brash head coach Nick Sirianni and franchise quarterback Jalen Hurts. A recent report from ESPN’s Tim McManus and Jeremy Fowler revealed what multiple team sources described the dynamic as "unhealthy" and plagued by a disconnect over offensive philosophies.

Hurts, fresh off a $255 million contract, sought more autonomy and an evolved scheme. However, Sirianni dug in, taking a more hands-on approach that muddied the messaging. Offensive coordinator Brian Johnson found himself caught between conflicting visions. As defenses adjusted, the Eagles' offense stagnated, scoring fewer than 20 points in five of their last seven games.

Tensions boiled over, with Hurts at times deviating from the gameplan in pursuit of "hero ball." A late-season loss to the Giants exemplified the discord, with Hurts and receiver A.J. Brown admittedly going "rogue" on a critical play. The locker room grew toxic as the Eagles backed into the playoffs before a humiliating wild-card exit.

In the aftermath, Sirianni made a mea culpa, vowing accountability. He hired respected coordinator Kellen Moore, taking a step back offensively to "bridge the gap" with Hurts. While outward interactions have improved, one source bluntly stated: "It can be a good working professional relationship, and I don't think it's hatred." For two figures driven by an insatiable will to win, that tenuous partnership will be tested as the Eagles aim to reclaim their Super Bowl pedigree.

NUMBERS YOU SHOULD KNOW
Is regular season winning percentage a good predictor of championships?

In the world of professional sports, the age-old debate rages on: Is regular season success a reliable predictor of postseason triumph? According to a comprehensive analysis by Football Fan Spot, the correlation between regular season winning percentage and championship victories is undeniable, yet not as strong as one might expect.

The data reveals that over the past 20 seasons in the NFL, the team with the best regular season record has won the Super Bowl a mere 25% of the time. This statistic underscores the unpredictable nature of the playoffs, where a single misstep can derail even the most dominant teams.

However, the numbers also indicate that regular season performance cannot be dismissed entirely. Teams with a winning percentage above 0.700 have captured the Vince Lombardi Trophy an impressive 60% of the time, highlighting the importance of consistent excellence throughout the grueling regular season campaign.

Interestingly, a study by JMP, a statistical analysis software company, found that certain advanced metrics, such as offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, can be more predictive of postseason success than traditional statistics like winning percentage. Their model correctly predicted the winner of the last three Super Bowls, a testament to the power of data-driven analysis in sports.

As the 2024 season approaches, fans and analysts alike will undoubtedly scrutinize every statistic and metric, seeking to unravel the enigma of championship prognostication. While regular season dominance is certainly a factor, the unpredictable nature of the playoffs ensures that the journey to the ultimate prize remains a thrilling and uncertain endeavor.

Did you know?

🏈 Regular season winning percentage has a 0.52 correlation with playoff success. However, point differential is actually a better predictor of playoff success than winning percentage, with a 0.64 correlation.
🏈 From 1990-2019, the team with the better regular season record won the Super Bowl 60% of the time.
🏈 Since 2002, only 3 teams have won the Super Bowl after having a .500 or worse regular season record (2007 Giants, 2011 Giants, 2012 Ravens).
🏈 Only one team with an all-time winning percentage higher than .545 has never won the Super Bowl. Sorry Vikings fans.

BEST LOOK 🔥 

The Lions’ new unis popped in their pre-season debut, even if the pants look like practice pants without a stripe. The uniform revolution in the NFL is alive and well.

MEME OF THE WEEK

🤭

You can get free stuff for referring friends and family to Opening Drive 👇️ 

1 referral - Opening Drive AI 2024 mock draft ✅ 
5 referrals - Opening Drive sticker pack ✅