Chaos Reigns at the NFL Draft 🌪️

Good morning. This is the Opening Drive, the weekly newsletter that brings you the best of the NFL so you’re always the smartest one at the water cooler.

The NFL draft broke all kinds of records, Cowboys go “all-in” by re-signing Zeke Elliot 🤔, the Falcons left us all scratching our heads, the Bears want to build a $4.6B stadium 🤯, the Chiefs extend Andy Reid, Matt Ryan retired, and we’ve got a deep dive on the success rate of drafting an NFL QB, plus grades for every team’s draft.

Let’s dive in.

QUICK HITS

• Check out PFF’s draft grades for all 32 teams here; and for a complete summary by round check out NFL.com

• First round of NFL draft sets record for offensive players selected (ESPN)

• 2024 NFL draft sets record with six QBs taken in round one (Bleacher Report)

• Record 275,000 fans swarm downtown Detroit to witness first round (Yahoo Sports)

• Bills GM defends draft night trade with rival Chiefs (Sports Illustrated)

• Falcons select QB Michael Penix Jr. with number eight overall pick in bizarre move (NFL.com)

• Cowboys and RB Ezekiel Elliott agree to terms to bring the former All-Pro back to Dallas (NFL.com)

• Jets agree to trade Zach Wilson to Broncos (PFT)

• Lions OT Penei Sewell agrees to terms on four-year $112 million extension that includes $85 million (NFL.com)

• Lions sign WR Amon-Ra St. Brown to contract extension through 2028 season worth up to $120 million (Yahoo Sports)

• Bengals exercise fifth-year option on WR Ja'Marr Chase (ESPN)

• Former Falcons, Colts QB Matt Ryan announces his retirement (PFT)

• NFL gives players option to wear Guardian Caps during games (PFT)

• Bears announce plans for $4.6B domed lakefront stadium (FOS)

• Bill Belichick exploring multiple roles on ESPN worth 'millions’ (Sports Illustrated)

• Chiefs agree to contract extensions with head coach Andy Reid, GM Brett Veach, president Mark Donovan (CBS Sports)

• NFL broadcaster Rich Eisen celebrates 20 years of ‘Run Rich Run’ — helping St. Jude find cures for childhood cancer and other life-threatening diseases (StJude.org)

WHO’S UP? WHO’S DOWN?

Who’s up?
Matt Ryan. After 15 seasons in the NFL, former league MVP Matt Ryan has announced his retirement from professional football. The announcement caps off a standout career that saw Ryan establish himself as one of the most productive and consistent quarterbacks of his generation. Drafted 3rd overall by the Atlanta Falcons in 2008, Ryan made an immediate impact, earning Rookie of the Year honors and leading the Falcons to the playoffs in his first season. Over the next decade, he cemented his status as the face of the franchise, guiding Atlanta to a Super Bowl appearance in 2016 and being named the NFL's MVP in 2016 after leading the league in passing yards and touchdown passes. "Matt Ryan's retirement marks the end of an era in Falcons history," said former Falcons coach Dan Quinn. "For nearly a decade and a half, he was the steadying force that kept this organization competitive and relevant. His toughness, leadership and production are the hallmarks of a true franchise quarterback." In 2022, Ryan was traded to the Indianapolis Colts, where he enjoyed a resurgent campaign, throwing for over 4,200 yards and 25 touchdowns. However, after the Colts missed the playoffs, the 38-year-old signal-caller has decided to hang up his cleats and call it a career. "It's been an incredible ride, and I'm grateful for the opportunity to have played this game that I love for as long as I have," Ryan said in a statement. "I want to thank all of my teammates, coaches, and the incredible fans who have supported me throughout my career. This has been a fulfilling chapter, and I'm excited to see what the future holds." A four-time Pro Bowler and one-time First-Team All-Pro, Ryan departs the NFL as one of the most statistically impressive quarterbacks of his era. His 59,735 passing yards and 367 touchdown passes rank him among the top-10 in league history in both categories. More importantly, he leaves the game as a respected leader and true professional who left an indelible mark on the sport.

Who’s down?
The Atlanta Falcons. The Atlanta Falcons' decision to select University of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the 8th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is already being met with widespread criticism and skepticism. It's a head-scratching move that has created a precarious situation within the team's quarterback room. The crux of the issue lies in the fact that the Falcons had already committed a staggering $180 million to veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Handing out such a massive long-term deal to a 35-year-old signal-caller hardly seemed like a prudent strategy, and now the Falcons have compounded that misstep by using a top-10 selection on another quarterback. "This is just a bizarre decision," said former NFL executive Michael Lombardi. "You pay Kirk Cousins a mountain of money, and then you go out and draft his potential replacement in the first round? It's a complete misallocation of resources." The numbers paint a bleak picture for Penix's chances of seeing the field anytime soon. Falcons GM Terry Fontenot suggested that Penix could sit "four or five years" behind Cousins, essentially condemning the rookie to an extended developmental period. That's a far cry from the immediate impact teams expect from a top-10 pick. "You don't use a premium selection on a quarterback if you don't intend for him to play right away," said former NFL scout Brock Sunderland. "This is a puzzling move that seems to defy all logic and conventional wisdom." The Falcons now find themselves in a precarious situation, with an expensive veteran quarterback who is nearing the end of his career and a first-round pick whose path to the starting job appears blocked for the foreseeable future. It's a recipe for discord and drama within the quarterback room, potentially hampering the development of both players. As the dust settles on the 2024 NFL Draft, the Falcons' decision to select Michael Penix Jr. is already being met with widespread derision. It's a costly blunder that has created a convoluted quarterback situation in Atlanta, one that could haunt the franchise for years to come.

NUMBERS YOU SHOULD KNOW
A deep dive on why drafting a successful NFL QB remains an inexact science

When it comes to identifying future franchise quarterbacks in the NFL Draft, the numbers paint a stark picture - it's an exceedingly difficult proposition. Since the modern NFL Draft era began in 1967, a total of 130 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round. Yet the hit rate on those picks has been abysmal. Just 61 of those 130 first-round QBs (46.9%) have gone on to win a playoff game as a starter. Even fewer, 58 (44.6%), have earned a trip to the Pro Bowl. And the crème de la crème? Only 13 first-round quarterback picks (8.1%) have won a Super Bowl as the starter for the team that drafted them. The struggles extend beyond the first round as well. From 1999 to 2011, a span of 13 NFL Drafts, 39 quarterbacks were selected in the opening round. But just 16 were taken in the second round over that same time period - a clear indicator of teams' desperation to land a franchise passer, even if it means reaching. The reasons behind the poor hit rate are complex. The transition from the college to pro game is notoriously difficult, with tighter throwing windows, more complex defenses, and a far faster overall pace of play. Evaluating the essential intangible traits like leadership, mental toughness, and the ability to handle pressure is an inexact science. Even teams with well-staffed scouting departments and the latest analytical tools struggle to reliably identify future stars. From Tom Brady's famous sixth-round selection to Mitch Trubisky being chosen second overall, the history of NFL quarterback evaluation is littered with both hits and spectacular misses. With six quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, the odds suggest that at least a few of them will ultimately fail to live up to their potential, no matter how talented they may appear. History has shown that the path from college star to NFL franchise QB is paved with uncertainty. In the end, drafting a successful NFL quarterback remains an enormously challenging task, one that even the savviest franchises routinely get wrong. The numbers don't lie - it's the rarest of accomplishments.

Did you know?

🏈 Since 1967, only 44.6% of first-round quarterback draft picks have made the Pro Bowl. Just 8.1% have won a Super Bowl as the starter for the team that drafted them.
🏈 NFL coaches and GMs struggle to evaluate the intangible qualities that lead to quarterback success, like mental toughness, leadership, and the ability to handle adversity. These traits are hard to assess in the college game.
🏈 The transition from college to pro offenses is extremely challenging. NFL passing windows are much tighter, defenses are more complex, and the speed of the game is drastically faster - all of which requires a higher level of decision-making and accuracy that many college QBs lack.
🏈 Even teams with extensive scouting resources and analytical tools get it wrong with alarming regularity. Quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott were all drafted later than their talent merited, while high draft picks like JaMarcus Russell, Akili Smith, and Mitch Trubisky flamed out quickly.

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