London Calling the Jags 👑

Good morning from beautiful sunny Del Mar, California where I’m on vacation this week.

This is the Opening Drive, the weekly newsletter that brings you the best of the NFL so you’re always the smartest one at the water cooler.

Some NFL owners want a QB-specific salary cap, the Jags could play three games in London, the whole AFC North will be on 'Hard Knocks', and we've got a deep dive on the peaks and declines of an NFL career.

Let’s dive in.

QUICK HITS

• Patriots and RB Rhamondre Stevenson reach four year $36 million deal (ESPN)

• Falcons sign first-round draft pick Michael Penix Jr. (NFL.com)

• Former Jets, Steelers WR Denzel Mims signs with Jaguars (PFT)

• NFL owners discussing potential QB salary cap in wake of escalating market (CBS Sports)

• Browns release Lonnie Phelps Jr. following DUI arrest in Key West after crashing into restaurant (ESPN)

• Jaguars could play up to three London games in 2027 during stadium renovation (PFT)

• TE George Kittle reveals he lost nearly 30 pounds following core surgery (NFL.com)

• Dolphins will host 12 training camp practices open to general public (PFT)

• Former Stanford HC David Shaw hired as Broncos’ senior personnel executive (ESPN)

• Judge rules Jim Trotter’s retaliation claim against the NFL can proceed (PFT)

• AFC North to be featured on in-season version of HBO’s ‘Hard Knocks’ (NFL.com)

OPENING DRIVE REQUIRED READING

• Check out Connor Orr’s 100 bold predictions for how the 2024 season will play out.

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WHO’S UP? WHO’S DOWN?

Who’s up?
Jim Trotter. In a significant victory for former NFL Network reporter Jim Trotter, a federal judge has ruled that his retaliation lawsuit against the league can move forward, rejecting the NFL's attempt to have the case dismissed.

The ruling, handed down in June 2024 by U.S. District Judge Jed S. Rakoff, centered on Trotter's allegations that the NFL declined to renew his contract in 2023 after he repeatedly pressed league commissioner Roger Goodell on the lack of diversity in the network's leadership and newsroom.

In his 38-page decision, Rakoff found "ample circumstantial evidence" that Trotter possessed a "good faith, reasonable belief" he was challenging unlawful employment practices, pointing to the "complete absence of Black managers or news desk personnel" at NFL Media.

Critically, the judge also highlighted Goodell's own response to Trotter's questions, in which the commissioner acknowledged the need for the league to "become more effective in our policies and our procedures." This, Rakoff said, suggested Goodell understood Trotter was complaining about potential discriminatory practices.

While the judge dismissed several of Trotter's other claims, the survival of the retaliation allegation is a significant development. It clears the way for Trotter to enter the discovery phase, where he can compel sworn testimony and documentation from league officials, potentially shedding light on the inner workings of NFL Media's hiring and management practices.

For Trotter, this ruling represents a crucial step in his fight to hold the NFL accountable for its treatment of minority employees. As the case moves forward, the sports world will be watching closely to see if the league's actions ultimately match its stated commitments to diversity and inclusion.

Who’s down?
The Cleveland Browns. The Cleveland Browns' offseason is quickly unraveling, as star wide receiver Amari Cooper has entered a contract standoff that threatens to derail the team's aspirations for the upcoming season.

Despite Cooper's instrumental role in the resurgence of quarterback Deshaun Watson and the Browns' offense, the front office has seemingly failed to prioritize securing the Pro Bowler's long-term future. Cooper's absence from mandatory minicamp, coupled with reports of his desire for a new, lucrative deal, have put the team in a precarious position.

This display of poor roster management by the Browns' front office is particularly troubling, given the significant investment they made in Watson last year. With the quarterback poised to regain his elite form, the Browns were well-positioned to make a legitimate Super Bowl push. However, the potential loss of Cooper could have a devastating impact on the offense, stunting Watson's growth and derailing the team's momentum.

The implications of this situation extend far beyond the field. The Browns' inability to retain their top playmakers sends a troubling message to the locker room, potentially undermining the team's chemistry and cohesion. As other players observe the organization's apparent disregard for its star talent, morale and trust could erode, ultimately hampering the Browns' chances of achieving their championship goals.

The Browns' front office must act swiftly and decisively to resolve this situation, lest they risk squandering the immense potential of their roster. Failure to do so would be a colossal misstep, one that could have far-reaching consequences for the team's future success.

NUMBERS YOU SHOULD KNOW
A deep dive on the peaks and declines of an NFL career

In the ever-evolving landscape of the NFL, the age curve of players has become a critical factor in predicting success and longevity. A deep dive into the data reveals fascinating insights into the prime years for various positions and the stark realities of the league's unforgiving nature.

One of the most striking findings is the stark contrast between offensive and defensive players. Offensive skill position players, such as wide receivers and running backs, tend to peak in their mid-to-late 20s, with a rapid decline thereafter. Data shows that wide receivers, for instance, typically see a significant drop-off in production after the age of 30, with a 30% decline in yards per reception and a 35% decline in touchdowns.

On the other hand, defensive players, particularly those in the trenches, often enjoy a longer window of peak performance. Defensive linemen, for example, can remain dominant into their early 30s, with only a modest 10% decline in sacks per game after the age of 29.

Quarterbacks, the most valuable position in the game, follow a unique trajectory. While they typically take a few years to develop and reach their prime, they can maintain a high level of play well into their 30s. The data shows that quarterback performance remains relatively stable until the age of 34, with only a gradual decline thereafter.

These age-related trends have profound implications for team-building and roster management. Savvy general managers must carefully navigate the age curve, balancing the need for immediate production with the long-term sustainability of their rosters.

As the NFL continues to evolve, the age curve will undoubtedly remain a crucial consideration for teams seeking to gain a competitive edge. By understanding the nuances of this data, coaches and executives can make more informed decisions, positioning their organizations for sustained success in the years to come.

Source: Age Curves: When NFL Players Break Out and Fall Off (fantasypoints.com)

Did you know?

🏈 Wide receivers typically see a significant 30% decline in yards per reception and a 35% decline in touchdowns after the age of 30.
🏈 Defensive linemen can remain dominant into their early 30s, with only a modest 10% decline in sacks per game after the age of 29.
🏈 Quarterback performance remains relatively stable until the age of 34, with only a gradual decline thereafter.

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