QB Mega-Deals, Holdouts, and Creamsicles

Good morning. This is the Opening Drive, the weekly newsletter that brings you the best of the NFL so you’re always the smartest one at the water cooler.

Jordan Love and Tua reset the QB market, Trent Williams is holding out, CeeDee and Dak get new contract offers, the creamsicles are back, and we’ve got a breakdown of whether or not these massive QB contracts actually lead to championships.

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Let’s dive in.

QUICK HITS

• Packers and QB Jordan Love agree to record four-year, $220 million contract extension (Yahoo Sports)

• Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa lands four-year, $212.4 million contract extension (CBS Sports)

• Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers agrees to three-year extension worth up to $30 million (NFL.com)

• Vikings, LT Christian Darrisaw agree to terms on four-year, $113 million extension including $77 million guaranteed (Fox Sports)

• 49ers LT Trent Williams staging holdout, seeking new contract (Yardbarker)

• Jets place pass rusher Haason Reddick on reserve/did not report list (Bleacher Report)

• Cowboys give CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott new contract offers (PFT)

• ESPN’s Bill Barnwell is predicting 49ers QB Brock Purdy’s contract extension will be $65 million per year (SI.com)

• Browns coach Kevin Stefanski will keep play-calling duties this season (The Athletic)

• Lions kicker Michael Badgley suffers season-ending torn hamstring during warm ups (ESPN)

• Rams cornerback Derion Kendrick suffers torn ACL in practice (Rams Wire)

• Cowboys DE Sam Williams tears ACL/MCL, out for season (ESPN)

• Guardian Caps are looking game ready (PFT)

• Bill Belichick 'politely' declined an offer to join 49ers coaching staff (NFL.com)

• ESPN adds Russell Yurk (who?) as rules analyst for MNF (PFT)

• Texans sell out season tickets for first time since 2019 (Houston Texans)

• NFL, NFLPA have begun discussions on a potential 18-game season (CBS Sports)

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WHO’S UP? WHO’S DOWN?

Who’s up?
Brock Purdy. The San Francisco 49ers are facing a pivotal decision regarding their quarterback situation, and Brock Purdy's impending contract extension is at the forefront of discussions. With Jordan Love's recent $220 million extension with the Green Bay Packers and Tua Tagovailoa's $212 million deal with the Miami Dolphins, the bar has been set high for Purdy's potential payday.

Purdy, the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, has defied all odds and emerged as a legitimate starting quarterback for the 49ers. His impressive performance during the latter part of the 2022 season has solidified his status as a potential franchise quarterback. However, the 49ers must navigate the complexities of securing Purdy's services while maintaining a competitive roster.

The impact of Love's and Tagovailoa's lucrative contracts cannot be understated. These deals have reset the market for young, promising quarterbacks, and Purdy's representatives will undoubtedly use them as benchmarks in negotiations. The 49ers must carefully weigh the financial implications of a potential mega-deal for Purdy against their ability to retain key players and maintain a balanced roster.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch face a delicate balancing act. While securing Purdy's services is crucial, overpaying could hamper the team's ability to address other positions and maintain their championship aspirations. The 49ers' front office will need to employ shrewd negotiation tactics and creative contract structuring to ensure long-term success.

As the offseason progresses, all eyes will be on the 49ers' decision-making process. Will they commit to Purdy as their franchise quarterback and offer him a deal that surpasses Love's and Tagovailoa's contracts? Or will they explore alternative options, risking the potential loss of a promising young talent? The outcome of these negotiations will undoubtedly shape the 49ers' trajectory for years to come.

Who’s down?
The 49ers. Star left tackle Trent Williams has opted to hold out, seeking a revised contract from the team. The 34-year-old veteran, who was acquired from Washington in 2020, is entering the final year of his six-year, $138 million deal.

According to reports, Williams is seeking an adjusted deal that would not only extend his stay with the 49ers but also provide him with additional financial security. The eight-time Pro Bowler is set to earn $19.7 million in base salary this season, but his absence from camp will come at a steep cost – a staggering $50,000 fine for each day missed.

While the exact figures Williams is seeking remain undisclosed, it is clear that the standoff between the player and the team is a high-stakes game of negotiation. The 49ers, who have Super Bowl aspirations, can ill afford to be without their stalwart left tackle for an extended period.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch now face a delicate balancing act – appeasing a key player while maintaining fiscal responsibility and setting a precedent for future contract negotiations. As the holdout continues, all eyes will be on Santa Clara, where the outcome of this standoff could have far-reaching implications for the 49ers' championship hopes.

NUMBERS YOU SHOULD KNOW
Does money buy championships?

In the ever-escalating quarterback salary race, a staggering eight signal-callers now command an average annual value (AAV) north of $50 million, dwarfing the "paltry" $45 million AAV of Patrick Mahomes' deal. However, a closer look at on-field performance reveals that money doesn't necessarily buy championships.

The newly minted $220 million extension for Jordan Love and $212 million pact for Tua Tagovailoa put them in rarified air alongside the likes of Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts in the $50 million-plus club. But their regular season and playoff resumes pale in comparison to Mahomes' gaudy .771 win percentage, 15 postseason victories, and three Super Bowl rings.

While Burrow has one Super Bowl appearance and Goff and Hurts each have a conference championship game berth, the other five QBs in this elite financial fraternity have yet to even reach those heights. Playoff wins have been hard to come by, with Jackson, Herbert, and Tagovailoa still seeking their first postseason triumph.

This dichotomy underscores the ever-increasing QB price tag in today's pass-happy NFL, where teams are betting big on potential over proven performance. As contracts continue to shatter records, the true litmus test remains postseason success and, ultimately, hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

For now, Mahomes stands apart, his "discounted" deal an incredible bargain when viewed through the lens of his unparalleled on-field brilliance. As the QB market continues its stratospheric ascent, the ability to win when it matters most will separate the truly elite from the merely well-compensated.

Did you know?

🏈 The combined win percentage of the eight QBs earning more than $50 million AAV per year is just 0.571.
🏈 Those same QBs have appeared in a combined three Super Bowls with zero wins.
🏈 In his four Super Bowl appearances, Patrick Mahomes’ completion percentage is 65.2 with seven TDs and five INTs, and 1,071 passing yards.

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