It's SUPER BOWL week in Vegas! 🏆🎰🎲🃏

Good morning. This is the Opening Drive, the weekly newsletter that brings you the best of the NFL so you’re always the smartest one at the water cooler.

It's SUPER BOWL week in Vegas! 🏆🎰🎲🃏 Don’t know who to root for? Don’t worry we’ve got you covered — here's everything you need to know about the big game, including whether a certain someone will be in attendance 🙌, plus we’ve got a deep dive on NFL viewership in 2023. 📈 

Let’s dive in.

QUICK HITS

• Super Bowl LVIII kicks off at 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, Feb. 11 and is available to stream on Paramount+ and on TV on CBS and Nickelodeon (CBS Sports)

• No decision yet on whether or not Taylor Swift will attend the Super Bowl (CBS Sports)

• Patrick Mahomes is even better in the post-season than he is in the regular season (Pro Football Talk)

• Cowboys DC Dan Quinn will join new GM Adam Peters in Washington as the Commanders new head coach (Yahoo Sports)

• Seahawks hire Ravens DC Mike Macdonald as their new head coach (ESPN)

• Greg Olsen addresses the possibility of getting replaced by Tom Brady as Fox’s no. 1 analyst (The Dan Patrick Show)

• Chip Kelly is eyeing a potential return to the NFL (Bleacher Report)

• Colin Cowherd defends Taylor Swift’s presence at NFL games (Fox Sports)

• The NFL is investigating Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte who allegedly placed more than 8,900 bets in 13-month span while at LSU (Yahoo Sports)

• The NFL’s concussion settlement is failing former players (Bleacher Report)

• Unsealed deposition testimony reveals lingering tensions over concussion issue (The Messenger)

• A Disney activist investor wants a bundled package for Netflix and ESPN+ (Cord Cutters News)

• Here’s an early look at 2024 free agency decisions for all 32 teams (ESPN)

• Greg Auman does a deep dive on the analytics of going for two when down 8 points (Fox Sports)

WHO’S UP? WHO’S DOWN?

Who’s up?
Ben Johnson (and the Detroit Lions). The Motor City is breathing a sigh of relief after offensive coordinator Ben Johnson spurned head coaching opportunities to stay in Detroit. Johnson was the architect behind the Lions' offensive explosion in 2023, in which they ranked 3rd in total team offense, turning him into a hot commodity on the coaching carousel. But the 36-year-old play caller ultimately decided he had "unfinished business" with Jared Goff and the Lions. Johnson's return is huge for Detroit. Since taking over the play calling duties in 2022, the Lions went from 22nd in total team offense in 2021, to 4th in 2022. Dan Campbell's bunch believes they're just scratching the surface, and Johnson wants to see it through. So Lions fans can celebrate - your offensive guru is staying put to keep the momentum going in Motown. With Johnson back in the fold, the Lions have a chance to make it back to the NFC championship in 2024.

Who’s down?
The New York Jets. The Jets' 2023 season fell apart when Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles in Week 1. But now, new details are starting to emerge about just how bad the frustration and dysfunction inside the organization is. Dianna Russini reported last week that players were frustrated with the offense and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and with head coach Robert Saleh’s leadership and mindset. Specifically, that Saleh was paranoid about job security, overly focused on outside criticism, and quick to make excuses about the team's struggles. As the season wore on, Saleh struggled to adjust without his star QB, leaning on backup Zach Wilson and Rodgers' hand-picked OC Hackett, but the offense sputtered as Wilson regressed. Losing Rodgers exposed serious flaws in the coaching staff, personnel, and culture that no one knew existed. Whether or not Rodgers’ return in 2024 will be enough to turn things around is unclear. What is clear is that change is needed. In the words of one Jets coach, “It’s just such a [bleeping] mess. Something has to change.”

SUPER BOWL LVIII STORY LINES

If you don’t have a dog in the fight and are unsure who to root for, here are some story lines to help you decide.

• If you’re a “Swiftie.” Root for: Chiefs. This is an easy choice for all the Taylor Swift fans out there.

• If you like an underdog story. Root for: 49ers. QB Brock Purdy is the ultimate underdog. He was the final pick in the 2022 draft, no. 262, AKA “Mr. Irrelevant.”

• If you like dynasties. Root for: Chiefs. The Chiefs are trying for their 3rd Super Bowl in 5 years with HC Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes.

• If you like a story of redemption. Root for: 49ers. Kyle Shanahan gets his third shot at a title. His first came as OC of the Falcons against the Patriots in Super Bowl LI (remember 28-3?), and his second against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV, both of which he lost.

SUPER BOWL LVIII 🤝 2014 WORLD SERIES

What do these two events have in common? Both Super Bowl LVIII and the 2014 World Series feature contests between teams from San Francisco and Kansas City. In each, one of the teams has not won a title in exactly 29 years (49ers since Super Bowl XXIX, and Kansas City Royals since 1985 World Series). The other team is one win away from its third title in five years (San Francisco Giants in 2010 and 2012, Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV and LVII).

(H/T @jazayerli)

HEAD COACH UPDATE

The Seahawks have hired Ravens DC Mike Macdonald as the NFL’s newest and youngest head coach and the Commanders have hired Cowboys DC Dan Quinn. For now it seems all head coaching vacancies have been filled. Keep an eye on Kansas City tho… 👀 You can check out all the latest coach and coordinator moves here.

Atlanta Falcons ✅ 
Carolina Panthers ✅ 
Las Vegas Raiders ✅ 
Los Angeles Chargers ✅ 
New England Patriots ✅
Seattle Seahawks ✅ 
Tennessee Titans ✅ 
Washington Commanders ✅ 

NUMBERS YOU SHOULD KNOW
A deep dive into NFL viewership 

The NFL is once again on top. In 2023, the NFL posted its highest ratings since 2015. Despite injuries to several star players, regular season games averaged 17.9 million viewers, a 7% increase from the previous year. Ratings were boosted by new streaming deals, more competitive games in primetime matchups on Thursday Night Football, and the draw of non-traditional viewers thanks to new superfan Taylor Swift.

Last weekend’s conference championship games were a ratings bonanza for Fox and CBS. An average of nearly 56 million viewers tuned in to watch the San Francisco 49ers outlast the Detroit Lions 34-31 in a thriller that peaked at almost 59 million viewers. Meanwhile, the earlier AFC clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, attracted over 55 million viewers.

This marks the first time since 2014 that both conference championships cleared the 50 million viewer hurdle. Fox in particular scored its biggest NFC title game audience since 2012, improving by 6% over last year's primetime matchup and an astounding 19% over the 2023 afternoon NFC clash. The AFC ratings on CBS were equally impressive, posting a 17% gain over 2022 and 4% over last year (via The Hollywood Reporter).

If these ratings are any indication of what’s to come in Super Bowl LVII, get your popcorn ready. 🍿 CBS is expecting 100 million viewers this Sunday, a milestone it hasn’t crossed since the Broncos 24-10 victory over the Panthers in Super Bowl 50 in 2016.

Did you know?

🏈 23 of the 25 most-watched telecasts in 2023 were NFL games
🏈 Peacock’s exclusive game last month averaged 7.2 million viewers
🏈 The most-watched game of the season was the Thanksgiving matchup between the Cowboys and the Commanders which drew a whopping 41.8 million viewers
🏈 Fox’s national game average was up 2% year over year to 24.6 million viewers
🏈 CBS saw its average audience increase 5% to 19.3 million viewers
🏈 Amazon’s Thursday Night Football coverage also grew its audience to nearly 12 million viewers this season, a 24% increase

OPENING DRIVE BEST BET 🎰🎲
Opening Drive record ATS: 0-2 📉

Chiefs +2.5 (+110 via FanDuel)

The playoff-tested Chiefs are rolling, stifling elite offenses behind a resurgent defense. But the never-say-die 49ers could give them a fight if they protect the ball better. Still, KC's poise and Patrick Mahomes' brilliance make them the smart bet in this evenly-matched showdown.

Bonus Super Bowl prop bets

How many times will Taylor Swift be shown on camera during the half time show? OVER 1.5 (+160 via BetUS)

Brock Purdy OVER 12.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM)

Please check your local state rules and regulations. 21+, gamble responsibly.

BEST LOOK 🔥 

We got a sneak peak at what each team will be wearing in Super Bowl LVIII (patches, patches, and more patches 🙄). It looks like each team will wear the same threads they donned for Super Bowl LIV, with the Chiefs in their home reds and the 49ers wearing their road white uni. From a uniform perspective it doesn’t get much better, let’s just hope we get a new look for the field rather than the mustard-yellow end zone from 2020. 🤮 

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